Iran Poised to Exploit Security Vacuum as US Forces Leave Iraq

The end of the US military mission in Iraq has created a serious security vacuum for Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region, which relied on Washington's protection for two decades.

Analysts say the immediate threat to the Kurdistan Region is not a full-scale invasion but a slow, calculated effort by Tehran to reduce its autonomy. Iran has carried out more than 1,000 drone and missile strikes on the region since late February 2026, many of them targeting camps of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.

The withdrawal of US-led coalition forces on 30 September 2026 has left the region without key air-defence systems, and Baghdad has so far declined to provide replacements.

Analysts also point to the long-standing rivalry between the two main ruling parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), as the region's most critical internal vulnerability. They warn that without a united front, the Kurdistan Region risks losing leverage to outside powers.

(Source: Deutsche Welle)